Recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence, like Generative AI, have sparked concerns about job security, and a new report by Goldman Sachs has further fueled these worries. The report predicts that as many as 300 million jobs worldwide could be affected by generative AI, with up to two-thirds of all jobs in the United States being exposed to automation by AI.
Goldman Sachs warns that if generative AI delivers on its promised capabilities, the labor market could face significant disruption. The report notes that of the positions that are affected by AI, up to 50% of their workload could be replaced. However, the report also emphasizes that most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are more likely to be complemented than replaced by AI.
While 7% of jobs in the US could be fully replaced by AI, the report estimates that 63% could be complemented by AI and 30% could be unaffected. The potential for AI to create new opportunities for workers and increase the total value of goods and services created worldwide by 7% over the next decade is also noted in the report.
Generative AI will affect the job market, says Goldman Sachs
Generative AI has attracted widespread attention since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, a chatbot built on a powerful AI engine that can write software, hold conversations, and even compose poetry. Microsoft is utilizing ChatGPT’s technology foundation, GPT-4, to enhance Bing search results, offer email writing tips, and facilitate presentation building.
Following the success of ChatGPT, a number of other tech giants, including Google, have rushed to capitalize on the breakthrough. Google has responded to Microsoft by launching its own ChatGPT rival, called Bard. However, Goldman Sachs cautions that not all jobs are created equal when it comes to exposure to AI. The report suggests that office and administrative support positions are at the greatest risk of task replacement in the US, followed by legal positions and architecture and engineering jobs.
According to the report, 46% of office and administrative support positions in the US could be automated by AI, with 44% of legal positions and 37% of architecture and engineering jobs also at risk. Conversely, jobs in cleaning and maintenance, installation and repair, and construction are among those with the lowest exposure to AI.
The report highlights the potential for AI to have major macroeconomic effects, but also notes the need for workforce development programs to prepare workers for the changing job market. The shift towards automation may create new opportunities for workers and businesses, but it also has the potential to displace workers, particularly those in positions that are highly repetitive or require a significant amount of manual labor.
As AI continues to evolve and become more sophisticated, concerns about job security are likely to persist. The report by Goldman Sachs serves as a reminder of the potential for AI to significantly disrupt the labor market, but also emphasizes the need for individuals and businesses to adapt and prepare for the changing job market. Ongoing education and training will become increasingly important to ensure that workers are equipped with the skills and knowledge necessary to succeed in the age of AI.
The report also notes that while some jobs may be at risk of being replaced by AI, others may be complemented by it. For instance, AI could help lawyers to conduct research and analyze data more efficiently, freeing them up to focus on higher-level tasks that require human judgment and decision-making. Similarly, AI could help architects and engineers to automate repetitive tasks, allowing them to spend more time on creative and innovative aspects of their work.