Polymarket has launched a new category of prediction markets focused on private companies, allowing users to trade on events related to pre-IPO companies. This offering, announced on Tuesday, aims to enhance price discovery in private markets, where valuation data is often limited. The new markets were developed in partnership with Nasdaq Private Market, which will provide the underlying data and market infrastructure.
The markets will reflect expectations around key events, including fundraising rounds and valuation changes for startups and late-stage private companies. This launch significantly expands Polymarket’s product lineup, which has traditionally centered on politics and public companies.
Polymarket’s move is designed to attract financially oriented users and extend prediction markets into private capital markets. The platform highlighted a rising demand for market-based forecasting tools tied to private companies, particularly due to the increase in “unicorns”—privately held startups valued at $1 billion or more. Currently, there are nearly 1,600 unicorns globally, with a cumulative valuation exceeding $5 trillion, despite access to these companies being largely limited to private investors.
Prediction markets are increasingly capturing interest from institutional investors, especially as demand grows for private company data and event-based contracts. According to a report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, retail traders account for 80% of prediction market volume. However, Wall Street analysts note that institutional participation is on the rise, bolstered by an improved US regulatory environment and enhanced market infrastructure.
Bernstein recently identified the first institutional block trade on Kalshi as a significant milestone for the prediction market sector, emphasizing the increasing engagement from large investors. This trend may pave the way for more sophisticated trading strategies within the rapidly evolving landscape of prediction markets.
