Meta is projected to surpass Google in global ad revenues for the first time by the end of 2026, as detailed in Emarketer’s latest forecast. This shift represents a significant milestone in the digital advertising industry, with Meta expected to generate $243 billion in net worldwide ad revenue, compared to Google’s $239.5 billion.
In 2025, Google led the field with $214 billion in ad revenue, while Meta reported $196 billion. The anticipated growth of Meta at 24.1% in 2026, up from 22.1% in 2025, contrasts with Google’s steadier projected growth rate of nearly 12% in 2026.
Currently, Google holds a 26.4% share of global digital ad spending, a figure that has been declining since 2021. Meta’s share is expected to increase to 26.8% in 2026. Meanwhile, Amazon is also solidifying its position in this market with expected ad revenues of $68.64 billion in 2025, increasing to $82 billion in 2026 and $97 billion in 2027. Amazon’s share of global digital ad spend is projected to rise to 9% in 2026, up from 8% in 2024.
Together, Meta, Google, and Amazon are expected to account for 62.3% of worldwide digital ad spending in 2026, a concentration of power that is expected to persist into 2028. The forecast was completed shortly before recent court rulings concerning Meta and YouTube, with Emarketer stating these rulings are not anticipated to materially affect its revenue projections.
Analysts at Emarketer attribute Meta’s growth to its structural advantages in digital advertising. “In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated,” said Max Willens, principal analyst. He emphasized that advertisers consider Meta primarily in terms of scale rather than mere access to its platforms.
On the other hand, Willens acknowledged that Google has potential growth opportunities, but its diverse business model could hinder rapid advancements in ad revenues. “Google has plenty of levers it can pull to try to speed up growth,” he noted, citing YouTube Premium as an example of its revenue diversity.
Zach Goldner, senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer, pointed out that Meta’s increasing value arises from enhancements across its ecosystem. Tools like Advantage+ and AI-generated ad creatives are reportedly improving ad performance, particularly on platforms like Facebook and Instagram.
Goldner indicated that legal developments will likely not affect advertiser behavior significantly in the near term, stating that advertisers prioritize performance over legal considerations when determining budget allocations. Drew Spink, senior forecasting analyst, remarked that the concentration of ad spending around Meta, Google, and Amazon can be attributed to their access to first-party data, AI technologies, and audience reach.
Global advertising is predicted to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, driven by increasing demand for digital channels. according to a report by dentsu. The report reveals that 86% of Chief Marketing Officers anticipate budget increases in the next year, with digital formats, especially retail media, social video, and programmatic advertising, remaining the central growth engines in the advertising sector.
