The global PC market saw an 8.4% year-over-year growth in the second quarter of 2025, marking its highest increase since 2022. This surge is primarily attributed to the impending end of official Windows 10 support, early adoption of AI-capable PCs, and commercial demand influenced by potential tariffs. Despite this growth, the market faces significant uncertainty due to looming trade policies and geopolitical shifts.
Counterpoint Research’s preliminary data highlights that the commercial segment was the main driver of this growth, with large enterprises and public organizations upgrading their PC fleets in anticipation of Windows 10’s end-of-support in October 2025. This has led to a notable increase in Windows 11’s popularity four years after its debut. The consumer segment, however, showed more moderate growth.
Lenovo maintained its position as the market leader, capturing 25% of total quarterly shipments and achieving a 15% year-over-year growth. HP secured the second spot with 20.9% of the market share and a 5% growth. Dell ranked third with 14.5% of the market, experiencing a slight decline in its share. Apple came in fourth, holding 8.9% of the market and demonstrating a 13% year-over-year growth, which Counterpoint attributes to strong MacBook sales driven by the latest M4 series. Asus recorded the most significant growth among major global PC manufacturers, expanding by 18% and shipping 6.8% of the systems during the quarter.
Despite the positive second-quarter performance, Counterpoint Senior Analyst Minsoo Kang predicts a weaker second half of 2025 for PC shipments due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs. However, the market is expected to rebound in 2026, largely driven by the increasing demand for AI PCs. It is widely anticipated that half of all laptops shipped from 2026 onwards will be AI-enabled systems.
Beyond market demand, the PC industry is also undergoing a significant geographical shift in manufacturing. While China remains a primary hub, PC vendors and manufacturers are actively diversifying their production capabilities to other countries. Vietnam, India, and Mexico are emerging as key alternative locations, though future trade policies could still impact these new manufacturing centers.
